{ "name": "Andwise forecasts with resolution criteria", "description": "Dated, falsifiable forecasts about physician pay, loans and contract law, each with a probability, a resolution date and the rule that decides it.", "source": "https://www.joinandwise.com/outlook", "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/", "attribution": "Andwise (https://www.joinandwise.com)", "citation": "Andwise, \"Andwise forecasts with resolution criteria\" (2026-10-21). https://www.joinandwise.com/outlook", "lastVerified": "2026-10-21", "scope": "US physician training, pay and contract rules", "note": "Probabilities are judgments, not advice. Each forecast names the event that resolves it so the record can be scored after the fact.", "count": 17, "data": [ { "id": "loan-rate-2027-above-2026", "category": "loans", "question": "Will new graduate and professional Direct Unsubsidized loans for 2027–28 carry an interest rate above 2026–27's 8.07%?", "means": "If you'll borrow for the 2027–28 year, plan on a higher rate than 2026–27's 8.07%: the rate resets each spring off the May Treasury auction, and the current math points up.", "probability": 0.82, "madeOn": "2026-10-21", "resolveBy": "2027-06-30", "resolution": "Yes if the Department of Education's announced fixed rate for graduate/professional Direct Unsubsidized loans first disbursed July 1, 2027 to June 30, 2028 is above 8.07%.", "reasoning": [ "By statute the rate is the 10-year Treasury high yield at the last auction before June 1 plus 3.60 points, capped at 9.50%. The 2026–27 rate came from a 4.468% yield on May 12, 2026.", "The 10-year yield was 5.12% on October 20, 2026. Getting back to 8.07% needs it to fall about 0.68 points by the May 2027 auction.", "From mid-October to the May auction, the yield fell that much in 6 of 36 years since 1991 (17%) and 4 of 26 since 2001 (15%). The forecast takes about 18% for a fall large enough, so 82% for a higher rate." ], "sources": [ { "title": "20 U.S.C. 1087e(b)(8)", "url": "https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/20/1087e" }, { "title": "FSA Electronic Announcement GENERAL-26-33 (2026–27 rates)", "url": "https://fsapartners.ed.gov/knowledge-center/library/electronic-announcements/2026-06-04/interest-rates-federal-direct-loans-first-disbursed-between-july-1-2026-and-june-30-2027" }, { "title": "U.S. Treasury daily par yield curve rates, 2026", "url": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/daily-treasury-rates.csv/2026/all?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026&page&_format=csv" } ], "related": [ "/loans", "/loans/repayment", "/residency" ], "status": "open" }, { "id": "loan-rate-2027-at-cap", "category": "loans", "question": "Will the 2027–28 graduate Direct Unsubsidized rate reach its statutory cap of 9.50%?", "means": "The 9.50% statutory ceiling probably won't bind — but if it did, 2027–28 would carry the highest federal graduate rate in the program's modern history.", "probability": 0.12, "madeOn": "2026-10-21", "resolveBy": "2027-06-30", "resolution": "Yes if the announced 2027–28 graduate/professional Direct Unsubsidized rate is 9.50%.", "reasoning": [ "The cap binds if the 10-year Treasury high yield at the May 2027 auction is 5.90% or more, about 0.75 points above its October 20, 2026 level of 5.12–5.15%.", "A rise of 0.75 points or more from mid-October to the May auction happened in 5 of 36 years since 1991 (14%), 2 of 26 since 2001 (8%) and 2 of 16 since 2011 (13%)." ], "sources": [ { "title": "20 U.S.C. 1087e(b)(8)", "url": "https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/20/1087e" }, { "title": "U.S. Treasury daily par yield curve rates, 2026", "url": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/daily-treasury-rates.csv/2026/all?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026&page&_format=csv" } ], "related": [ "/loans" ], "status": "open" }, { "id": "pslf-employer-rule-reinstated", "category": "loans", "question": "Will a federal appeals court reinstate the 2025 PSLF employer-eligibility rule, by reversing or staying the vacatur, by June 30, 2027?", "means": "Plan on current PSLF employer rules holding: eligibility doesn't turn on an employer's alleged 'illegal purpose,' and an appeals court is unlikely to revive that test before mid-2027.", "probability": 0.06, "madeOn": "2026-10-21", "resolveBy": "2027-06-30", "resolution": "Yes if, by June 30, 2027, the First Circuit or the D.C. Circuit reverses either district court's vacatur of the October 31, 2025 PSLF employer rule or stays it, so the rule can take effect.", "reasoning": [ "The government appealed on August 27, 2026 in three cases. No stay of either vacatur appears on the dockets.", "The First Circuit's opening briefs are due November 4 and 16, 2026; briefing would finish around early January 2027 without extensions. That circuit's median from notice of appeal to decision in civil appeals is 13.1 months, which points to late 2027.", "The D.C. Circuit's median is 10.7 months, about mid-July 2027, and it had no briefing schedule as of October 20, 2026.", "The Massachusetts ruling rests on three independent grounds (statutory authority, arbitrary and capricious, First Amendment), so reversal there requires the government to win on all three." ], "sources": [ { "title": "1st Cir. No. 26-1972 docket", "url": "https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/74768514/national-council-of-nonprofits-v-mcmahon/" }, { "title": "1st Cir. No. 26-1973 docket", "url": "https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/74755484/commonwealth-of-massachusetts-v-us-department-of-education/" }, { "title": "D.C. Cir. No. 26-5308 docket", "url": "https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/74711185/robert-f-kennedy-center-for-justice-and-human-ri-v-linda-mcmahon/" }, { "title": "Federal Court Management Statistics, June 2026", "url": "https://www.uscourts.gov/data-news/reports/statistical-reports/federal-court-management-statistics/federal-court-management-statistics-june-2026" } ], "related": [ "/loans", "/loans/repayment" ], "status": "open" }, { "id": "poverty-guideline-2027", "category": "loans", "question": "Will the 2027 HHS poverty guideline for one person in the 48 contiguous states and DC be at least $16,400?", "means": "Income-driven payments key off this number — a guideline near $16,400 means RAP and IBR payments creep up with it, slower than your salary.", "probability": 0.78, "madeOn": "2026-10-21", "resolveBy": "2027-02-28", "resolution": "Yes if the 2027 guideline published in the Federal Register for a one-person household in the 48 contiguous states and DC is $16,400 or more (2026: $15,960).", "reasoning": [ "$16,400 is a 2.76% rise. The guidelines move with the change in annual-average CPI-U from 2025 to 2026.", "CPI-U for January–September 2026 averaged 3.35% above the same months of 2025, and September alone was 3.74% higher.", "The one-person figure has differed from the CPI change by up to about a point (2026: +1.98% against 2.63%), which keeps the forecast below 90%.", "IBR protects 150% of the guideline from payments; RAP does not use it." ], "sources": [ { "title": "2026 HHS poverty guidelines", "url": "https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2026/01/15/2026-00755/annual-update-of-the-hhs-poverty-guidelines" }, { "title": "FRED: CPI-U, not seasonally adjusted (CPIAUCNS)", "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCNS" } ], "related": [ "/loans/repayment" ], "status": "open" }, { "id": "medicare-cf-2027-final-below-2026", "category": "medicare", "question": "Will the CY2027 Medicare Physician Fee Schedule final rule set the conversion factor for clinicians outside a qualifying APM below 2026's $33.4009?", "means": "Productivity pay very likely shrinks again in 2027. Before signing a wRVU-based contract, ask whether the rate restates for CMS revaluations.", "probability": 0.97, "madeOn": "2026-10-21", "resolveBy": "2026-12-31", "resolution": "Yes if the conversion factor for non-qualifying-APM clinicians in the CY2027 PFS final rule (CMS-1848-F), as published, is below $33.4009. Later legislation does not count.", "reasoning": [ "The proposed rule sets $32.8409, a 1.68% cut, mainly because 2026's one-year 2.5% increase expires.", "From CY2022 to CY2026 the final conversion factor stayed within 0.06% of the proposed one; the largest gap since 2021 was +0.46%. Matching 2026 would take about +1.7%.", "The final rule has been under OMB review since September 29, 2026; the last five final rules appeared between October 31 and November 2." ], "sources": [ { "title": "CMS-1848-P (CY2027 proposed rule)", "url": "https://www.cms.gov/medicare/payment/fee-schedules/physician/federal-regulation-notices/cms-1848-p" }, { "title": "OIRA rules under review", "url": "https://www.reginfo.gov/public/do/XMLViewFileAction?f=EO_RULES_UNDER_REVIEW.xml" } ], "related": [ "/contracts/clauses/compensation" ], "status": "open" }, { "id": "medicare-2027-congress-fix", "category": "medicare", "question": "Will Congress enact a law by March 31, 2027 that raises 2027 Medicare physician payment above the conversion factor in the CY2027 final rule?", "means": "Don't budget on a Congressional fix before spring: a partial patch has become an annual ritual, but a full one has failed repeatedly since 2015.", "probability": 0.4, "madeOn": "2026-10-21", "resolveBy": "2027-03-31", "resolution": "Yes if a law signed by March 31, 2027 increases the CY2027 PFS conversion factor, or payment for most PFS services, above the final rule's level for any part of 2027.", "reasoning": [ "Congress raised the conversion factor after the final rule for 2021, 2022, 2023 and 2024 (the 2024 change was signed March 9, 2024). It did not for 2025, and 2026's increase came in a July 2025 law before the rule.", "As of October 21, 2026 no bill restoring the expiring 2.5% has moved. H.R. 9693 (65 cosponsors) would give an update of MEI minus one point but sits in committee.", "The current stopgap funding law runs to December 11, 2026 and has no physician-payment provision; the next funding bill is the likely vehicle, as in past years.", "The forecast weights the four earlier fixes against the two most recent years without one." ], "sources": [ { "title": "H.R. 9693, Patients First Act of 2026 (text)", "url": "https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/BILLS-119hr9693ih/html/BILLS-119hr9693ih.htm" }, { "title": "Pub. L. 119-103 (continuing appropriations to Dec. 11, 2026)", "url": "https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/PLAW-119publ103/html/PLAW-119publ103.htm" }, { "title": "CMS-1848-P (CY2027 proposed rule)", "url": "https://www.cms.gov/medicare/payment/fee-schedules/physician/federal-regulation-notices/cms-1848-p" } ], "related": [ "/contracts/clauses/compensation" ], "status": "open" }, { "id": "sc-income-tax-cut-2027", "category": "tax", "question": "Will South Carolina's top individual income tax rate for tax year 2027 be below 5.21%?", "means": "If you're comparing offers across states, don't lock a 2027 tax-year plan that assumes South Carolina's cut — it's about a coin flip.", "probability": 0.55, "madeOn": "2026-10-21", "resolveBy": "2027-07-31", "resolution": "Yes if, by July 31, 2027, South Carolina law or the Department of Revenue sets a top rate below 5.21% for tax year 2027, whether by the statutory trigger or new legislation.", "reasoning": [ "Under §12-6-510(C)(2)(a) the top rate must fall if individual income tax revenue is projected to grow at least 5% in FY2027-28; the forecast in effect on February 15, 2027 decides.", "South Carolina has cut its rate in each recent year, including a retroactive 2026 cut signed March 30, 2026, so a legislative cut is possible even if the trigger fails.", "The revenue forecast that decides the trigger was not yet published when this was made, which keeps the forecast near even." ], "sources": [ { "title": "S.C. H. 4216 (2025–2026)", "url": "https://www.scstatehouse.gov/sess126_2025-2026/bills/4216.htm" }, { "title": "S.C. Code Title 12, Chapter 6", "url": "https://www.scstatehouse.gov/code/t12c006.php" } ], "related": [ "/residency/south-carolina" ], "status": "open" }, { "id": "mi-income-tax-cut-2027", "category": "tax", "question": "Will Michigan's individual income tax rate for tax year 2027 be below 4.25%?", "means": "Michigan's 3.23% rate is unlikely to revert to 4.25%: the rollback depends on an annual revenue formula that hasn't triggered since 2015.", "probability": 0.08, "madeOn": "2026-10-21", "resolveBy": "2027-06-30", "resolution": "Yes if Michigan Treasury determines, or a law sets, a 2027 individual income tax rate below 4.25%.", "reasoning": [ "A cut is triggered only if FY2026 general fund revenue growth exceeds inflation (MCL 206.51(1)(c)), determined after the state's FY2026 financial report, around April 2027.", "The May 2026 consensus estimate put FY2026 general fund collections at $14.3 billion, below FY2025's $14.5 billion, so the trigger is unlikely to fire.", "A separate legislative cut would need a new law; none was pending when this was made." ], "sources": [ { "title": "Michigan Treasury: 2026 tax year rate determination", "url": "https://www.michigan.gov/treasury/news/2026/04/15/state-individual-income-tax-rate-for-2026-tax-year-determined" } ], "related": [ "/residency/michigan" ], "status": "open" }, { "id": "noncompete-2027-three-states", "category": "noncompete", "question": "Will at least 3 states enact a law limiting physician non-competes in 2027?", "means": "Before signing anywhere in 2027, re-check your state's rule — more caps and bans are likely this year, and older guides won't reflect them.", "probability": 0.75, "madeOn": "2026-10-21", "resolveBy": "2027-12-31", "resolution": "Yes if at least three states (DC counts) enact, during calendar year 2027, a law that bans or limits non-competes for physicians generally or a broad class of physicians. Counted by the date a law is signed, becomes law without a signature or is enacted over a veto. A law that tightens an existing physician limit counts. Laws limited to one employer, to staffing firms or to non-physician professions do not count, and neither do laws signed before 2027 that take effect in 2027.", "reasoning": [ "States enacting a physician-reaching limit, by signing date: 5 in 2023, 3 in 2024, 7 in 2025 and 5 in 2026 (Maine, Utah, Virginia, Vermont, with Washington's general ban).", "About 30 jurisdictions still have no physician-specific limit. Among states without one, 7% to 17% enacted one each year from 2023 to 2026, which points to about 4 or 5 states in 2027.", "Every legislature meets in 2027, including Nevada, Texas, Montana and North Dakota, which skip even years. The highest count, 7, came in 2025, the last odd year.", "Against: 2027 starts a new two-year legislature in most states, so 2025–26 bills must be refiled, and the states left include several where hospital associations have stopped bills repeatedly (Missouri, Mississippi, Florida, Wisconsin)." ], "sources": [ { "title": "Becker's ASC: physician non-compete crackdown, a 50-state guide (2026-09-22)", "url": "https://www.beckersasc.com/asc-coding-billing-and-collections/physician-noncompete-crackdown-a-50-state-guide/" }, { "title": "Maine LD 2200 (2026)", "url": "https://legislature.maine.gov/LawMakerWeb/summary.asp?paper=HP1479&SessionID=16" }, { "title": "Utah HB 270 (2026)", "url": "https://le.utah.gov/~2026/bills/static/HB0270.html" }, { "title": "Virginia HB 627 (2026)", "url": "https://lis.virginia.gov/bill-details/20261/HB627" }, { "title": "21 V.S.A. § 495q (Vermont)", "url": "https://legislature.vermont.gov/statutes/section/21/005/00495q" } ], "related": [ "/contracts/noncompete", "/contracts/clauses/non-compete" ], "status": "open" }, { "id": "noncompete-2027-five-states", "category": "noncompete", "question": "Will at least 5 states enact a law limiting physician non-competes in 2027?", "means": "Three new state limits is the likely case; five would be an unusually big year. If your state is on the bills-to-watch list, its odds beat this national number.", "probability": 0.4, "madeOn": "2026-10-21", "resolveBy": "2027-12-31", "resolution": "Yes if at least five states (DC counts) enact, during calendar year 2027, a law that bans or limits non-competes for physicians generally or a broad class of physicians. Counted by the date a law is signed, becomes law without a signature or is enacted over a veto. A law that tightens an existing physician limit counts. Laws limited to one employer, to staffing firms or to non-physician professions do not count, and neither do laws signed before 2027 that take effect in 2027.", "reasoning": [ "Five or more states did this in 2023, 2025 and 2026, and three did in 2024.", "The pool is shrinking: the states that acted in 2023–2026 were mostly ones where medical societies and hospitals reached a deal, and the remaining states include several where hospital opposition has held for years.", "The likeliest 2027 enactments are in states where a bill already passed one chamber: Nevada and South Carolina. Reaching five needs at least three more states with weaker starting positions." ], "sources": [ { "title": "Becker's ASC: the state-by-state non-compete crackdown, 15 updates (2026-07-21)", "url": "https://www.beckersasc.com/asc-news/the-state-by-state-noncompete-crackdown-15-updates-for-physicians-and-ascs/" }, { "title": "Becker's ASC: physician non-compete crackdown, a 50-state guide (2026-09-22)", "url": "https://www.beckersasc.com/asc-coding-billing-and-collections/physician-noncompete-crackdown-a-50-state-guide/" } ], "related": [ "/contracts/noncompete" ], "status": "open" }, { "id": "noncompete-nv-2027", "category": "noncompete", "question": "Will Nevada enact a law limiting physician non-competes by July 31, 2027?", "means": "Nevada is the closest call among pending bills. If you're signing there before mid-2027, watch the legislature as closely as the current statute.", "probability": 0.45, "madeOn": "2026-10-21", "resolveBy": "2027-07-31", "resolution": "Yes if, between 2026-10-21 and 2027-07-31, Nevada enacts a law (including by veto override) that bans or limits non-competes for physicians or for patient-facing health care providers.", "reasoning": [ "Both parties have passed the same ban. SB 378, covering patient-facing providers, passed both chambers in 2025 and was vetoed over an emergency-room billing provision; the veto message does not mention non-competes. Gov. Lombardo's own SB 495 carried the same ban and passed the Senate 13–8 before the session ended.", "Health care bills that passed one chamber and came back the next session became law in 2 of 3 recent cases (Texas and Oregon in 2025).", "Against: Nevada has now failed twice, in 2023 and 2025, each time because the ban rode in a larger bill that failed for other reasons. None of the 612 bill-draft requests for 2027 named non-competes as of 2026-10-16, though most titles are generic.", "Overriding the SB 378 veto needs 14 of 21 Senate votes and 28 of 42 Assembly votes; the bill got 12 and 27 in 2025, so an override alone is unlikely. The 2027 session runs 2027-02-01 to 2027-05-31, and the 2026-11-03 governor's race decides who signs." ], "sources": [ { "title": "Nevada SB 378 (2025)", "url": "https://www.leg.state.nv.us/App/NELIS/REL/83rd2025/Bill/12674/Overview" }, { "title": "Nevada SB 495 (2025)", "url": "https://www.leg.state.nv.us/App/NELIS/REL/83rd2025/Bill/12939/Overview" }, { "title": "Governor's veto message on SB 378", "url": "https://gov.nv.gov/uploadedFiles/gov2022nvgov/content/Newsroom/vetos/SB378%20Veto%20Message.pdf" } ], "related": [ "/contracts/noncompete/nevada" ], "status": "open" }, { "id": "noncompete-sc-2027", "category": "noncompete", "question": "Will South Carolina enact a law limiting physician non-competes by July 31, 2027?", "means": "South Carolina's bill has moved and stalled before; assume the current rule stands until a new one is actually signed.", "probability": 0.3, "madeOn": "2026-10-21", "resolveBy": "2027-07-31", "resolution": "Yes if, between 2026-10-21 and 2027-07-31, South Carolina enacts a law that bans or limits non-competes for physicians.", "reasoning": [ "H.4767 would void physician non-competes while letting employers recover documented relocation, training and bonus costs. It passed the House 58–53 on 2026-03-26 and was reported favorably by the Senate Labor, Commerce and Industry Committee on 2026-05-05, but the Senate never voted.", "The bill must be refiled for the session that runs 2027-01-12 to 2027-05-13. Health care bills that passed one chamber and came back the next session became law in 2 of 3 recent cases.", "Against: the House margin was five votes, hospital systems such as McLeod Health testified against it, and 2027 is the first year of a two-year legislature, so the bill can carry into 2028 instead of finishing in 2027." ], "sources": [ { "title": "S.C. H.4767 (2025–2026)", "url": "https://www.scstatehouse.gov/sess126_2025-2026/bills/4767.htm" }, { "title": "Live 5 News: lawmakers debate physician non-compete ban (2026-05-05)", "url": "https://www.live5news.com/2026/05/05/south-carolina-lawmakers-debate-ban-physician-non-compete-clauses/" } ], "related": [ "/contracts/noncompete/south-carolina" ], "status": "open" }, { "id": "noncompete-il-2027", "category": "noncompete", "question": "Will Illinois enact a law limiting physician non-competes by December 31, 2027?", "means": "Illinois is unlikely to pass a physician-specific limit; the change to know there is the existing threshold rising from $75,000 to $80,000 on January 1, 2027.", "probability": 0.15, "madeOn": "2026-10-21", "resolveBy": "2027-12-31", "resolution": "Yes if, between 2026-10-21 and 2027-12-31, Illinois enacts a law that bans or limits non-competes for physicians generally or for physicians employed by hospitals or health systems.", "reasoning": [ "Illinois' general non-compete law voids non-competes only for workers earning $75,000 a year or less ($80,000 from 2027), which leaves out nearly all practicing physicians.", "House Labor & Commerce has advanced three bills that would reach physicians (HB 2561, 19–8; HB 4565, 18–9; HB 3213, 16–3), but none has had a floor vote. They stay alive through the fall veto session and January lame-duck days until the new General Assembly convenes on 2027-01-13.", "Physician-reaching bills that got committee action became law 12 of 27 times in 2025–26. These have sat in the Rules Committee for months, and after 2027-01-13 they must be refiled." ], "sources": [ { "title": "Illinois HB 4565", "url": "https://www.ilga.gov/ftp/legislation/104/BillStatus/HTML/10400HB4565.html" }, { "title": "Illinois HB 2561", "url": "https://www.ilga.gov/ftp/legislation/104/BillStatus/HTML/10400HB2561.html" }, { "title": "Illinois HB 3213", "url": "https://www.ilga.gov/ftp/legislation/104/BillStatus/HTML/10400HB3213.html" } ], "related": [ "/contracts/noncompete/illinois" ], "status": "open" }, { "id": "noncompete-ny-2027", "category": "noncompete", "question": "Will New York enact a law limiting physician non-competes by December 31, 2027?", "means": "New York's statewide ban was vetoed once already; plan on the current common-law limits until something is actually signed.", "probability": 0.12, "madeOn": "2026-10-21", "resolveBy": "2027-12-31", "resolution": "Yes if, between 2026-10-21 and 2027-12-31, New York enacts a law that bans or limits non-competes for physicians, whether in a general ban or a health care bill.", "reasoning": [ "The Senate passed a ban covering health professionals at any pay in 2025 (S4641A, 40–22) and 2026 (S9759, 40–21). The Assembly Labor Committee acted on neither.", "Gov. Hochul vetoed a broader ban in 2023, objecting that it had no salary threshold. She is on the 2026-11-03 ballot.", "General bans that passed one chamber became law 3 of 9 times since 2023, and three of the six failures were New York's." ], "sources": [ { "title": "N.Y. S4641A (2025)", "url": "https://www.nysenate.gov/legislation/bills/2025/S4641/amendment/A" }, { "title": "N.Y. S9759 (2026)", "url": "https://www.nysenate.gov/legislation/bills/2025/S9759" } ], "related": [ "/contracts/noncompete/new-york" ], "status": "open" }, { "id": "noncompete-nj-2027", "category": "noncompete", "question": "Will New Jersey enact a law limiting physician non-competes by December 31, 2027?", "means": "New Jersey's bill has been reintroduced session after session without becoming law — don't wait on it when choosing between offers there.", "probability": 0.08, "madeOn": "2026-10-21", "resolveBy": "2027-12-31", "resolution": "Yes if, between 2026-10-21 and 2027-12-31, New Jersey enacts a law that bans or limits non-competes for physicians, whether in a general ban or a physician bill.", "reasoning": [ "A1647 would void physician geographic restrictions, with exceptions. It was referred to the Assembly Health Committee on 2026-01-13 and has had no hearing. It and the general ban A1829/S1407 stay alive until the session ends on 2028-01-11.", "No physician-reaching bill that lacked a hearing or committee vote became law in 2025–26 (0 of 18).", "The previous session's physician bill never got a hearing. A general ban cleared Assembly Labor in December 2025 and expired a month later." ], "sources": [ { "title": "N.J. A1647 (2026)", "url": "https://www.njleg.state.nj.us/bill-search/2026/A1647" }, { "title": "N.J. S1407 (2026)", "url": "https://www.njleg.state.nj.us/bill-search/2026/S1407" } ], "related": [ "/contracts/noncompete/new-jersey" ], "status": "open" }, { "id": "noncompete-oh-lame-duck", "category": "noncompete", "question": "Will Ohio pass SB 301 or another physician non-compete limit before its legislature ends on December 31, 2026?", "means": "Ohio's chance effectively dies with the December 2026 session. If SB 301 fails there, the next window is the new legislature in 2027–28.", "probability": 0.04, "madeOn": "2026-10-21", "resolveBy": "2027-01-31", "resolution": "Yes if, by 2026-12-31, both chambers of Ohio's 136th General Assembly pass a bill that bans or limits non-competes for physicians or a broad class of them, and it becomes law by 2027-01-31.", "reasoning": [ "SB 301 is backed by the Ohio State Medical Association, Ohio ACEP and the Ohio Osteopathic Association and has had committee hearings. The Ohio Chamber of Commerce opposes it and the general ban SB 11.", "Neither bill has passed a chamber, and both die when the General Assembly ends on 2026-12-31. Lame-duck sessions pass many bills, but a bill still in committee in late October has little time left." ], "sources": [ { "title": "Ohio SB 301 (136th General Assembly)", "url": "https://www.legislature.ohio.gov/legislation/136/sb301" }, { "title": "Ohio SB 11 (136th General Assembly)", "url": "https://www.legislature.ohio.gov/legislation/136/sb11" } ], "related": [ "/contracts/noncompete/ohio" ], "status": "open" }, { "id": "noncompete-ftc-health-care-case", "category": "noncompete", "question": "Will the FTC or Justice Department bring a case over a health care employer's clinician non-competes by June 30, 2027?", "means": "A federal case would signal where enforcement pressure is heading — worth watching, not something a contract decision should wait on.", "probability": 0.15, "madeOn": "2026-10-21", "resolveBy": "2027-06-30", "resolution": "Yes if, between 2026-10-21 and 2027-06-30, the FTC or the Justice Department publicly files a complaint, announces a proposed or final consent order, or sues over non-competes that a health care employer or staffing firm imposes on physicians or other clinicians. Warning letters, workshops, reports and merger-decree conditions do not count.", "reasoning": [ "Since dropping its nationwide rule in September 2025, the FTC has brought three worker non-compete or no-hire cases in about 13 months: pet cremation, building services and pest control. None was in health care.", "In September 2025 it sent warning letters about clinician non-competes to large health care employers and staffing firms, and its request for information singled out health care. No report on that request had appeared by 2026-10-21.", "Against: the Commission has two sitting members, both Republican. The chair has said the agency lacks the power to ban non-competes nationwide, and the Rollins statement calls for \"exacting proof\" under a case-by-case test." ], "sources": [ { "title": "FTC: health care non-compete warning letter", "url": "https://www.ftc.gov/system/files/ftc_gov/pdf/noncompete-warning-letter-template.pdf" }, { "title": "FTC: request for information on non-competes", "url": "https://www.ftc.gov/news-events/news/press-releases/2025/09/federal-trade-commission-issues-request-information-employee-noncompete-agreements" }, { "title": "FTC: Rollins final consent order (2026-06)", "url": "https://www.ftc.gov/news-events/news/press-releases/2026/06/ftc-approves-final-consent-order-pest-control-noncompete-matter" }, { "title": "Chair Ferguson's prepared remarks, non-compete workshop", "url": "https://search.ftc.gov/system/files/ftc_gov/pdf/ferguson-prepared-remarks-ftc-workshop-on-noncompetes.pdf" } ], "related": [ "/contracts/noncompete", "/contracts/clauses/non-compete" ], "status": "open" } ] }